GIC
A Weekly Outlook and Analysis of the
Global Investment Climate

27 September 2001

Markets have character. Our job is to spot it. Sometimes they are deceptive and sometimes they are very revealing. This is the objective of technical analysis, and it differs with a statistical analysis, which strives precisely to preclude any unscientific interpretation.

Analysts cannot say that one is better than the other at predicting the future course of events. In fact, neither is particularly good at this endeavor. You and I may be, but these tools are just that. We use them in order to help us figure out what to do next. Others use them to try and help you figure out what they want you to.

But statistical analysis is particularly difficult to apply to capital markets because few events are like the other. In fact, the only way they may be similar is in the way the market behaves in their presence.

Dear (sweet) Oil
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Crude Curve
What does the positive contango between the Nov '01 / Feb '02 contract mean?

SEPTEMBER
GLOBAL MARKET REVIEW

Aug 24 - Sep 26
LAST
CHANGE
% CHANGE
Dow
8567
- 1856
17.8%
SP500
1007
- 178
15.0%
Nasdaq Comp
1464
- 453
23.6%
TSE 300
6655
- 975
12.8%
Euro Top 100
245
- 47
16.1%
FTSE 100
4682
- 790
14.4%
Nikkei
9642
- 1524
13.7%
Best Performing U.S. Equity Sectors
XAU Gold Miners Index
57.77
- 0.49
0.8%
Telecom Index (XTC)
825.65
- 46.18
5.3%
Insurance Index
676.23
- 43.09
6.0%
Pharmaceuticals / Drug Stocks
374.30
- 24.93
6.2%
Hospitals Index
331.25
- 25.32
7.1%
 
Interest Rates
10 yr US Yields
4.64%
- 0.27
5.6%
30 yr US Yields
5.50%
+ 0.06
1.1%
 
Commodities
CRB
190.57
- 8.98
4.5%
West Texas Intermediate Crude
21.81
- 5.09
18.9%
Gold (vs dollar)
291
+ 18
6.6%
Silver
4.62
+ 0.38
9.0%
 
Currencies
US Dollar Index
112.26
- 1.07
0.9%
Dollar / Euro
1.085
- 0.013
1.2%
Dollar / Yen
117.20
- 1.67
1.4%
 
Ratios
Gold/Silver
63.0
- 1.4
2.2%
Gold/Oil
13.3
+ 3.1
30.4%
Gold/CRB
1.52
+ 0.15
11.0%

In This Week's Issue (SUBSCRIBERS ONLY):

  • Where will the V turn up?
  • Will there be a bounce in the Dow?
  • Crisis management and similar historic events...
  • Demand shocks and their impact on oil consumption...
  • M. King Hubbert predicts the end to cheap oil, for the world, 45 years ago, and he's been right all along...
  • Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England, on the challenges affecting central banking policy in the new millennium.

 

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Sincerely,
Edmond J. Bugos

The GoldenBar Global Investment Climate is not a registered advisory service and does not give investment advice. Our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While we believe our statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of our own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you toconfirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.